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Half a Chance: Youth Bulges and Transitions to Liberal Democracy

Author: Richard P. Cincotta
Organisation: New Directions in Demographic Security
Publish Date: 2009
Country: Global
Sector: Democracy & Governance, Legal & Civic Rights
Method: Forecasting
Theme: Youth
Type: Other publication
Language: English
Tags: Youth Bulge, Forecasting

"The dissipation of a large youth bulge tends to yield relative political calm," says Richard Cincotta. On the other hand, democratic gains under youth-bulge conditions "face unfavorable odds." Using age-structure data, he assesses the fragility of existing liberal democracies and forecasts when new ones will emerge.
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