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HIV and AIDS Scenarios for South Africa: 2005-2025 – Demographic Projections

Author: Nathea Nicolay
Organisation: Metropolitan Holdings Limited
Publish Date: 2006
Country: South Africa
Sector: Health
Method: Scenarios
Theme: Aids
Type: Report
Language: English
Tags: South Africa, HIV, AIDS, Demographic, Projections, Scenarios

This document reports on the main AIDS and demographic projections for the Metropolitan Live the Future scenario project. The project was initiated in 2004 to “create a shared understanding of the current reality, of what is possible and what we would like to achieve”2¹ with regards to the future around HIV and AIDS in South Africa. The four scenarios that were created, will give rise to different numbers of HIV positive individuals, new HIV infections, AIDS sick individuals and AIDS deaths over the next twenty years. These main HIV and AIDS statistics, together with many more demographics, were projected in order to provide a clear picture of what the HIV and AIDS epidemic could look like over the next twenty years for each scenario. The demographic work was done by Metropolitan AIDS Risk Consulting using the ASSA2002 (full) AIDS and Demographic model during the latter half of 2005.


The report states the purpose of the AIDS and demographic projections, the methodology used, as well as the assumptions behind the projections. The results of the projections provide the main HIV and AIDS statistics for each scenario and include the most important graphs to illustrate the projection of the epidemic over the next twenty years until 2025. The final chapter discusses the study of orphanhood under various scenarios with insightful graphs on the relative impact of the scenarios on numbers of maternal orphans for specific age groups in future.
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