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Scenario Analysis

Author: Douglas Banks and Thobeka Nkosi
Organisation: South Africa Sparknet Scenarios
Publish Date: 2005
Country: Africa
Sector: Economic
Method: Forecasting
Theme: Futures
Type: Document
Language: English
Tags: households,development

This document sets out three scenarios for rural, and low income urban households in the year 2014 – for South Africa. The ‘business as usual’ case assumes that there is moderate economic growth, continuation of existing regional co-operation (which unfortunately means acceptance of some continued conflict and poverty in some neighbouring countries). The worst case scenario assumes that the economy is poor, and that regional and international co-operation is poor (significant regional poverty and political instability, no
significant international support). The best case scenario assumes that the South African economy grows
well, that international climate change and other development assistance is forthcoming on a significant
scale, and that there is regional stability – which reduces existing inflows of refugees and illegal immigrants.
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