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Uncertainities in Predicting Tourist Flows Under Scenarios of climate Change

Author: Stefan Gossling and C. Michael Hall
Organisation: Dept. of Service Management, Lund University
Publish Date: 2006
Country: Global
Sector: Economic
Method: Scenarios
Theme: Tourism
Type: Journal
Language: English
Tags: climate change,uncertainities

Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example,“warmer” climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes
are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable
use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity (G¨ossling and Hall,2005). This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage
or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national
economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of
great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of
publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socioeconomic
parameters (e.g. Lise and Tol, 2001; Maddison, 2001; Christ et al., 2003;
Hamilton et al., 2003; Hamilton and Tol, 2004). The ultimate goal has been to
develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including “most at risk destinations”,
both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to
help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance
in developing plans for adaptation.
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