Foresight

Bibliozone

 

 

Foresight For Development turns the spotlight on foresight methodologies and future thinking.

Featured in Bibliozone this month is a collection of publications related to foresight methodologies and futures research methods. The selection of documents is partial and based on accessible material. Therefore, we would like to invite everyone to supplement our library with additional materials.

 

From our FFD library:

Here are the publications available in our library:

• Foresight Methodology
• Futures Research Methods
• Scenario Planning
• Forecasting Methods
• Delphi Technique
• Cross-Impact Analysis
• Environmental Scanning
• Horizon Scanning
• Trend Analysis
• Wild Cards & Weak Signals
• Causal Layered Analysis
• Systems Thinking
• Futures Wheel
• Personal Futures

Foresight Methodology

• An Overview of Foresight Methodologies
• Action Research as Foresight Methodology
• A System-Based, Qualitative Inference Method of Heuristics for Foresight and Futures Studies
• Bridging Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Foresight
• Collaborative Forecasting Games: a crowd’s view of the future
• Complexity in Foresight: Experiences With Intersections
• Dictionary of Foresight
• Emergence and Design in Foresight Methods
• Emergence In The Foresight
• Evaluating Foresight: Fully-Fledged Evaluation of CTFP
• Experiential Foresight: Participative Simulation Enables Social Reflexivity in a Complex World
• Exploratory Modelling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty
• Foresight 101: The Art and Science of Thinking About the Future
• Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term Planning Tool for Developing Countries
• Foresight between Uncertainty and Convention
• Foresight Graduate Programs - Global List
• Foresighting for Development
• Foresight Maturity Model (FMM): Achieving Best Practices in the Foresight Field
• Foresight Methodology: an overview and more...
• Foresight Methodologies
• Foresight Process Based On Text Analytics
• Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
• From Forecasting to Foresight: A Complex Systems View of the Future
• From Hindsight To Foresight: Applying Futures Research Techniques In Information Systems
• Handbook for Knowledge Society Foresight
• How are foresight methods selected?
• Identifying systems’ new initial conditions as influence points for the future
• Imaginal Visioning for Prophetic Foresight
• Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in practice
• Inventory of Foresight Methodologies and Studies
• Overview of Methods used in Foresight
• Methodology of the Millennia2015 Foresight Research Process
• Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation
• Practical Foresight Guide
• Strategic Foresight: For Corporate and Regional Development
• Technology foresight: types and methods
• The Art of Foresight: Preparing for a Changing World
• The Evolution of Strategic Foresight: Navigating Public Policy Making
• The Foresight Fan: Systemic Approaches to Foresight
• The Foresight Field: Resources
• The FOR-LEARN Online Foresight Guide
• The use of technology blueprints as a foresight instrument from a practitioner's point of view
• Thinking about Tomorrow Today: An Introduction to Using Foresight in South Africa
• To Predict or to Build the Future? Reflections on the Field and Differences between Foresight and La Prospective
• Why strategic foresight matters for Africa

 

 

Futures Research Methods

• An Overview of Four Futures Methodologies
• A Practitioner's Experience of Using Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) to Craft Futures
• A Primer on Futures Studies, Foresight and the Use of Scenarios
• Being without existing: the futures community at a turning point? A comment on Jay Ogilvy’s ‘‘Facing the fold’
• The Multiple Perspective Concept
• A Survey on Futures Studies Methods
• Complexity theory for organisational futures studies
• Crystal Ball Gazing or Strategic Thinking: what is this Futures thing all about anyway?
• Exploring the future: tools for strategic futures thinking
• Footprints of the Future: Timelines and Exploratory Forecasts in Futures Research
• Futures Research and Decision Making: Examples and Reflections
• Futures Research and the Strategic Planning Process
• Futures Research Methodology CD
• Futures Studies
• Futures Studies and Future-oriented Technology Analysis Principles, Methodology and Research Questions
• Future Studies, Foresight and Scenarios as basis for better strategic decisions
• Futures Studies: Theories and Methods
• Futures Studies using Morphological Analysis
• Futures studies - Wiki
• Future Tools Literature Review
• Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS)
• Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past
• Intersections of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies: Methodological Complementarities
• Introduction Futures Research: Forecasting and Scenarios
• Introduction to the Futures Research Methods Series
• Modeling Methods
• On a Morphology of Theories of Emergence
• Participatory Methods Toolkit: A practitioner’s manual
• Qualitative futures research for innovation
• Relevance Tree and Morphological Analysis
• Seeing in Multiple Horizons: Connecting Futures to Strategy
• Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis
• Shaping Tomorrow Today: Near-Term Steps Towards Long-Term Goals
• Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming
• State of the Future Index (SOFI) Method
• Strategic Planning Revisited: A Futures Perspective
• Technology Sequence Analysis
• THE FUTURIST’s “Think Kit”
• The Futures Toolkit: Tools for strategic futures for policy - makers and analysts
• Towards the Dynamic Paradigm of Futures Research – How to grasp a complex futures problem with multiple phases and multiple methods

 

 

Scenario Planning

• 7 Ways to Apply Scenario Planning
• Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight
• A Free Software Toolkit
• About a text about a tool: Exploring Shell’s Explorer’s Guide
• A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios
• An Authoring Tool to Derive Valid Interactive Scenarios
• A Note on Scenario Planning
• A Review of Scenario Planning Literature
• A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning – Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy
• A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning Tool Description – Framing Checklist (1)
• A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning Tool Description – 360° Stakeholder Feedback (2)
• A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning Tool Description – Impact/Uncertainty Grid (3)
• A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning Tool Description – Scenario Matrix (4)
• Automated Scenario Generation: Coupling Planning Techniques with Smart Objects
• Casual-leisure Searching: the Exploratory Search scenarios that break our current models
• Challenging futures “How can scenarios help to cope with uncertainties?" A handbook for applying the scenario analysis method in innovation agencies
• Concepts of Scenario Methods in Improvement of an Enterprise
• Connecting adaptation and strategy: The role of evolutionary theory in scenario planning
• Creating the future: Goal-oriented Scenario Planning
• Creating the future: The use and misuse of scenarios
• Crowd-sourced Collective Intelligence Platforms for Participatory Scenarios and Foresight
• Decision-driven scenarios for assessing four levels of uncertainty
• Developing Scenario Laboratories with Computer-Aided Morphological Analysis
• Developing & Using Scenarios
• Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades
• Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments
• Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology
• Exploring client scenarios associated with scenario planning
• Exploring Scenario Planning Processes – Differences and similarities
• Exploring the impact of evaluating strategic options in a scenario-based multi-criteria framework
• Extending the Influence of Scenario Development in Sustainability Planning and Strategy
• Field Manual - Scenario Building
• Forefront: how to be rigorous with scenario planning
• Future Scenarios: The Art of Storytelling
• Futures Literacy: A Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method
• Integral Scenario Development: Introducing an AQAL Root Questions Method
• Interactive Scenarios
• Introduction to Scenario Planning
• Introduction to Scenarios
• Learning from the future through scenario planning
• Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios
• Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature
• Management Tools 2013: An executive’s guide (Scenario and Contingency Planning)
• Methodological Reflections on the Schooling for Tomorrow Toolbox: Matching Tools with Tasks
• Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis: Overview, Assessment, and Selection Criteria
• Methods for Developing Multi-scale Participatory Scenarios
• Narrative Rhetorics in Scenario Work: Sensemaking and Translation
• Open Futures Library | Engage with a Library of scenarios
• Plotting Your Scenarios
• Questioning Scenarios
• Scenario analysis as a strategic management tool
• Scenario Approaches – History, Differences, Advantages and Disadvantages
• Scenario art: A new futures method that uses art to support decision-making for sustainable development
• Scenario Manager: Information Organizing Tool
• Scenario Modelling for Managers: A System Dynamics Approach
• Scenario Network Mapping
• Scenario Planning
• Scenario Planning
• Scenario Planning: An Innovative Approach to Strategy Development
• Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking
• Scenario Planning in Organizations: Theory vs. Implementation
• Scenario Planning: The link between future and strategy
• Scenario Planning Toolkit
• Scenario Planning: Tools and Techniques
• Scenario Planning with African Pastoralists: A ‘How To’ Guide
• Scenarios: A Hero’s Journey across Turbulent Systems
• Scenarios Analysis with International Futures (IFs)
• Scenarios and Strategies for Extended Producer Responsibility
• Scenarios: An Explorer's Guide
• Scenarios Planning Playbook
• Scenarios Practices: In Search of Theory
• Scenario Thinking Practical Approaches to the Future
• ScenarioThinking.org
• Scenario Toolkit
• Strategic Foresight La Prospective: Use and Misuse of Scenario Building
• Strategic Scenario Planning Linking Performance Indicators to Bottom-Line Results
• Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses
• The Bayes Scenario Parameter generator tool
• The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques
• The Field of Scenarios: fuzziness as a chance for building appealing future visions
• The Open Future: Open Source Scenario Planning
• The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning
• The use and abuse of scenarios
• The Use and Value of Scenario Planning
• Thinking About The Future: The Value Of Scenario Planning
• Using signposts in future studies: Lessons from the Justice for tomorrow project

 

 

Forecasting Methods

• An article on Technology Forecasting methodologies
• Classification of Technology Forecasting Methods: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Integrability Analyses
• Comparisons of Forecasting Methods with Many Predictors
• Forecasting tools
• Handbook of Forecasting Techniques
• Matching of technological forescasting technique to a technology
• Morphological Forecasting - Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR)
• Normative Forecasting
• On the Future of Technological Forecasting
• Quantitative Technology Forecasting Techniques
• Report on a Long-Range Forecasting Study
• Strengths and Weaknesses of some popular Technology Forecasting techniques
• The Forecasting Classification Grid: A Typology for Method Selection
• Technological Forecasting – A Review
• Technological Forecasting: A Strategic Imperative
• Technological Forecasting in Perspective A Framework for Technological Forecasting, its Techniques and Organisation
• Time Series Analysis and Forecasting

 

Delphi Technique

• Analysis of the Future: The Delphi Method
• Delphi
• Delphi method
• Delphi Process: A Methodology Used for the Elicitation of Opinions of Experts
• Delphi survey
• Delphi Technique Theoretical Framework in Qualitative Research
• Review of literature on the Delphi Technique
• The Delphi Method
• The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study of Group Opinion
• The Delphi Method, II: Structure of Experiments
• The Delphi Method, III: Use of Self-Ratings To Improve Group Estimates
• The Delphi Method, IV: Effect of Percentile Feedback and Feed-In of Relevant Facts
• The Delphi Method for Graduate Research
• The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications
• The Delphi Technique
• The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis
• The Delphi Technique: Making Sense Of Consensus
• The Delphi technique: Past, present, and future prospects — Introduction to the special issue
• The Real-time Delphi Method - The Millennium Project
• The Real-Time Delphi Method
• Using Experts’ Opinions Through Delphi Technique
• Validating an innovative real-time Delphi approach - A methodological comparison between real-time and conventional Delphi studies

 

Cross-Impact Analysis

• A New Look at the Cross-Impact Matrix and its Application in Futures Studies
• Cross-Impact Analysis
• Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis
• Input-Output Models for Impact Analysis: Suggestions for Practitioners Using RIMS II Multiplier
• Linking cross-impact probabilistic scenarios to input-output models
• Qualitative cross-impact analysis with time consideration
• Supporting Collaborative Scenario Analysis through Cross-Impact

 

Environmental Scanning

• Analyzing Environments and Developing Scenarios in Uncertain Times
• Environmental Scanning
• Environmental Scanning
• Environmental Scanning Guide
• Environmental Scanning & Monitoring
• Environmental Scanning: The need for and overview of environmental scanning systems
• Environmental Scanning: What it is and how to do it
• Insights Between Environmental Scanning Activities and Porter's Generic Strategies: An Empirical Analysis
• Using External Environmental Scanning and Forecasting to Improve Strategic Planning
• Why Environmental Scanning Methods Work Except When You Need Them: The Threats of Asym metric Attacks and Strategic Inflection Points

 

Horizon Scanning

• Horizon Scanning
• Looking back at looking forwards: Next steps for Horizon Scanning and Futures
• Scanning - Shaping Tomorrow

 

 

Trend Analysis

• A Method of Trend Extraction Using Singular Spectrum Analysis
• Comparison of Trend Detection Methods
• Definition of trend analysis approaches: Concepts, priorities, and analytical approach
• Trend Analysis vs Emerging Issues Analysis
• Trend Impact Analysis

 

Wild Cards & Weak Signals

• Good Sources of Weak Signals: A Global Study of Where Futurists Look For Weak Signals
• How to detect and cover weak signals – Anders Frick
• NEST: A Model for Detecting Weak Signals of Emerging Trends Using Global Monitoring Expert Network
• Seeing the Future in Weak Signals
• Some Notes on the Strategic Strength of Weak Signal Analysis
• The strength of ‘weak signals’
• Weak Signals in Organizational Futures
• Wild Cards Applications in Future Studies
• Wildcards – Signals from a future near you
• Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisation

 

Causal Layered Analysis

• Causal Layered Analysis: An Integrative and Transformative Theory and Method
• The Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Reader
• Causal Layered Analysis - Deepening the future
• Causal Layered Analysis: poststructuralism as method
• Causal Layered Analysis: Unveiling and Transforming the Future

 

Systems Thinking

• An Introduction to Systems Thinking
• A Pressing Need: Improving Performance
• Overview of Systems Thinking
• System Dynamics/Systems Thinking: Let's Just Get On With It
• Systems Thinking: a simple thinking technique for gaining systemic (situation-wide) focus
• Systems Thinking: Four Key Questions
• Systems Thinking in Foresight
• Systems Thinking & the ithink Software Better Mental Models, Simulated More Reliably
• The potential of system dynamics: A new era of strategic planning?
• What are “Mental Models”?
• What are “Mental Models”? Part 2

 

Futures Wheel

• Future Wheel
• The Futures Wheel
• The Futures Wheel: Identifying Future Consequences of a Change

 

Personal Futures

• It's YOUR future...Make it a good one!
• Personal Futures: Foresight & Futures Studies for Individuals
• The Personal Futures Workbook

 

 

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