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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z 0-9

Oil and the Global Economy: How Worried Should We Be?

Author: Ric Deverell, Jan Stuart, Neville Hill, Hiromichi Shirakawa, Neil Soss, Andrew Garthwaite, Kasper Bartholdy
Organisation: Credit Suisse Securities Research
Publish Date: April 2012
Country: Global
Sector: Petroleum
Method: Forecasting
Theme: Energy
Type: Report
Language: English
Tags: Brent oil prices, Oil supply, Global macroeconomy, Equity markets

Reports that although increases in commodity prices are theoretically a zero-sum game for global income (some countries/companies win, while others lose), in the current uneven global economy, they have tended to exacerbate the bifurcated nature of the recovery, increasing both concerns about weak growth in the North Atlantic and inflation (and hence policy flexibility) in many emerging markets. In general terms, the fragile US consumer remains most exposed to the rapid increases in prices, with the direct real economy impact in other regions blunted by taxation and cross subsidies. Although at current levels we do not expect oil to disrupt the recovery, a move to or above $150 could have significant implications.

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