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A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z 0-9

Peak Oil – Security policy implications of scarce resources

Author: Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, Future Analysis Branch
Organisation: Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, Future Analysis Branch
Publish Date: November 2010
Country: Germany
Sector: Petroleum
Method: Forecasting
Theme: Energy
Type: Report
Language: English
Tags: Peak oil, Security implications, German oil imports, Food security, Conventional oil, Unconventional oil, New oil discoveries

In this first part of the study entitled "Armed Forces, Capabilities and Technologies in the 21st Century – Environmental Dimensions of Security", the Bundeswehr Future Analysis Branch addresses the subject of finite resources and their potential security policy implications, exemplary using the scenario in which the global maximum rate of oil production has been exceeded. The term "peak oil" stands for the maximum rate of oil production and refers to the point in time at which the rate of a single oil field, of an oil-producing region, or globally reaches its absolute peak. In geological terms, about half of the originally existing resource quantity of oil will be available in underground oil reservoirs at this time. Various measures such as investing in production technologies to develop further resources, economising in oil consumption, or softening existing environment protection regulations, could indeed maintain the production level for a certain period. From peak oil, however, this level will irreversibly decline in the long term. Generally speaking, oil will therefore continue to be available and recoverable beyond the 30-year timeframe chosen in this study, albeit in quantities that are possibly too small to fully satisfy global demands and at considerably higher prices.
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