Mining Industry Scenarios 2011-2014

How could the mining industry develop in the period 2011 to 2014? Two scenario's are developed by thebusinessofmining.com to challenge the mental frameworks of professionals in the industry: In the 'Red Wave'-scenario China's government manages to sustain demand growth, resulting in high commodity prices. At the same time China invests heavily all around the world, forcing other miners to focus on organic growth. In the 'Countercurrent'-scenario revaluation of the renminbi and high interest rates in China lead to lower commodity demand. Prices decrease across the board. Miners struggle to maintain positive margins. New project development becomes of secondary importance.