Tags: Malnutrition, Obesity, Diseases, Overweight, Trends, Analysis, Risks

This report presents analysis that uses the most recent Health Survey for England data to predict future obesity trends and their consequences in terms of the increase incidence of BMI related diseases. The incidence of disease is modelled using a micro-simulation. The simulation makes use of the most recently available disease incidence, prevalence, mortality and relative-risk statistics to present predictions for arthritis, coronary heart disease, diabetes, gall bladder disease, hypertension, stroke and the following cancers: breast, colorectal, endometrial, kidney, oesophageal and liver. An important development to the disease-modelling is the inclusion of hypertension, it is a significant illness in its own right but it also plays an important intermediate role in raising the relative risks of other diseases. Micro simulation can easily capture and model such dependencies.

A prediction of obesity - trends for adults.pdf